Purpose of consultancy:
To address the high demand for the geographic disaggregation of key indicators, Population Statistics Team at PDB is working on Small Area Estimation (SAE), centers around the utilization of census data, integration of various of data sources to estimate UNFPA’s key SDG indicators at a more granular level and strengthen the national capacity on producing demographic and health statistics using SAE.
The consultant will review the existing SAE of HIV and STI prevalence, SAE approaches, develop a SAE model based on data such as Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA), national surveillance data in available countries, etc., and produce HIV and STI prevalence estimates for UNFPA’s HIV prevention priority countries.
The consultant can take the following references of HIV prevalence district level estimation, and develop a simpler approach based on publicly available standardized data.
Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura, et al. "Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017." Nature 570.7760 (2019): 189-193.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1200-9
Eaton, Jeffrey W., et al. "Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub‐Saharan Africa." Journal of the International AIDS Society 24 (2021): e25788.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8454682/
Scope of work:
Tasks and responsibilities:
1. Work with UNFPA Population Development Branch (PDB) and Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRHB) project focal points to review the existing method on small area estimation of HIV and STI prevalence estimates;
2. Develop a small area estimation model (based on the existing models and approaches) to estimates for HIV and STI prevalence estimates;
3. Generate small area estimates results for HIV and STI prevalence estimates for key and vulnerable populations in UNFPA priority countries;
4. Draft an initial global report based on the HIV and STI prevalence estimates for key and vulnerable populations.
The duration of this consultancy is 30 working days, spanning a duration of November 1 - December 31, 2023. Payment will be made on receipt of deliverables as per the agreed schedule and to a maximum of 21 days per month.
Deliverables
● Development of SAE models for HIV and STI prevalence estimates
● Generation of SAE results for HIV and STI prevalence estimates for key and vulnerable populations in UNFPA priority countries (at least one or two countries)
● Draft an initial global report
Supervisory arrangements: The consultant will work under the direct guidance and supervision of the Geospatial lead.
Expected Travel: N/A
Required Expertise and Qualifications
Education:
● Advanced degree (Ph.D. preferred) in statistics, applied mathematics, epidemiology, demography, computer science or related disciplines or any other relevant field.
Knowledge and Experience:
● At least ten years’ experience in statistical modeling apps/tools developing, including: Statistical modeling and analysis: Expertise in statistical approaches, e.g. general linear mixed model, regression model, hierarchical linear model, Bayesian model, etc.
● Experience of developing SAE methodology
● Master statistical software and programming languages, e.g., R, SPSS, STATA, SAS, Python, etc.
● Development of tools/apps/macro within statistical software
● Experience of working with population and health data, e.g., Census, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA), national surveillance data, and other survey data
● Understanding of the dynamics and measurement of HIV prevalence
● Skills of writing guidance documents or research papers is preferred
How to Apply
Please send your resume and a cover letter with "SAE Consultant" in the subject to szhang@unfpa.org by Friday, October 20, 2023
We are no longer accepting applications for this position.
