National Consultant - To Produce District Carrying Capacity Analytical Report and Policy Briefs for 92 Districts

How you can make a difference:

UNFPA is the lead UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe and every young person's potential is fulfilled.  UNFPA’s strategic plan (2022-2025), reaffirms the relevance of the current strategic direction of UNFPA and focuses on three transformative results: to end preventable maternal deaths; end unmet need for family planning; and end gender-based violence and harmful practices. These results capture our strategic commitments on accelerating progress towards realizing the ICPD and SDGs in the Decade of Action leading up to 2030. Our strategic plan calls upon UN Member States, organizations and individuals to “build forward better”, while addressing the negative impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on women’s and girls’ access to sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights, recover lost gains and realize our goals.

In a world where fundamental human rights are at risk, we need principled and ethical staff, who embody these international norms and standards, and who will defend them courageously and with full conviction.

UNFPA is seeking candidates that transform, inspire and deliver high impact and sustained results; we need staff who are transparent, exceptional in how they manage the resources entrusted to them and who commit to deliver excellence in programme results.

1. Background 

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is seeking services from an individual consultant to support the Department of Population and Development (DPD) at the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP). With support from UNFPA, the DPD embarked on district carrying capacity assessments (CCA) in 2021 and has so far undertaken these assessments in 23 districts. Recently, MoFNP has engaged in data collection activities from the remaining districts, hence the call for this support. The CCA aims at providing timely and reliable statistics critical for planning, monitoring and evaluation of various national plans and programmes. Apart from data analyses, the Consultant is expected to review literature and prepare different documents as per the terms of reference outlined below.

2. Assessment Objectives 

The purpose of this assessment is to conduct a thorough evaluation of the environmental, physical, economic, and social carrying capacities of districts across the country. The assessment will focus on three main objectives:

1. Develop a comprehensive framework for assessing carrying capacities at the district level to guide development planning processes;
2. Conduct a detailed analysis of the environmental, physical, economic, and social carrying capacities at the district level; and 
3. Develop sector specific policy briefs based on the results and recommendations of Carrying Capacity Assessments. 

3. Description of the Assignment (Scope, Criteria and Methodology)

To meet the objectives, the Consultant will undertake the Assessment guided by the following:

No.	Tasks	Expected Output	Deliverable	Estimated number of Working days
	Inception Phase	Inception Report (Assessment Approach: Design, Literature Review, Methodology, and instruments/tools/frameworks for Data Analysis (qualitative and quantitative) with workplan, roadmap, timeframe and training materials prepared.	Inception Report within three weeks of signing of the contract	10 days
2.	Capacity Building	Training of key Stakeholders in District Carrying Capacity Data Modelling and Analysis	Capacity Building Workshop undertaken	4 days
3.	Submit zero Draft District Carrying Capacity Assessment report	Technical Carrying Capacity Reports  District Profiles illustrating the vulnerability of the populations to development and humanitarian challenges _____________________________________ MoFNP and Technical Working Group provide feedback on the Zero Draft Report and the Consultant incorporate comments	Final cleaned CCA dataset produced Final data analysis instruments and frameworks submitted to the MoFNP Zero Draft Technical Carrying Capacity Reports and profiles highlighting surpluses/deficits at the district level submitted to the MoFNP	20 days
4.	Submit First Draft District Carrying Capacity Assessment report	First Draft District CCA Analytical with post policy briefs compiled and submitted MoFNP MoFNP and Technical Working Group provide feedback on the First Draft Report and the Consultant incorporate comments	First Draft District CCA Analytical Report and Policy Briefs compiled and submitted to MoFNP	10 days
5.	Submit the Second draft District Carrying Capacity Assessment report	Second Draft District CCA Analytical with post policy briefs compiled and submitted MoFNP ___________________________ MoFNP and Technical Working Group provide feedback on the Second Draft Report and the Consultant incorporate comments	Second Draft District CCA Analytical Report and Policy Briefs compiled and submitted to MoFNP	3 days
6.	Submit a final District Carrying Capacity Assessment report	Final draft District CCA Analytical Report and Policy Briefs compiled and submitted to the Ministry of Finance and National Planning ____________________________________ Validation of the final draft District CCA Analytical Report and Policy Briefs by the Technical Working Group	Final District CCA Analytical Report and the Policy Briefs submitted to the Ministry of Finance and National Planning incorporating submissions received from the Technical Working Group	3 days

4. Approach and Methodology 

This study is based on a review of data from different sectors, including Environment, Social, Physical, and Economic. The goal is to develop district-level profiles of carrying capacity using indicators from key sectors including education, health, energy, water supply, agriculture, livestock, fisheries, community development, social welfare, roads, and forestry.

To create the Carrying Capacity report, a mixed method using a four-step approach will be adopted: 

• desk review of reports, policies, and documents
• collection of district-level service and cadastral data
• district-level multi-sectoral meetings
• data analysis and model building (forecasting and simulation).

The aim is to develop subnational carrying capacity profiles for 93 districts of Zambia. The use of a mixed-method approach is essential to ensure that a wide range of key indicators are analysed, considering the contextual differences among the districts.

5. Desk Review

This will involve the review of the relevant literature and resources that will be available to the Consultant. This literature (resources) will include, among others:

• 2019 National Population Policy;
• Government Policies and Strategies; 
• The Vision 2030 and its National Performance Framework;
• 8NDP volumes I and II;
• Integrated District Development Plans;
• 2023 Sub-National Carrying Capacity Assessment Report; 
• 7NDP Annual Progress Reports; 
• 8NDP Annual Progress Reports;
• 2018 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey;
• 2022 Census of Population and Housing;
• 2022 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey;
• 2017-2022 Labour Force Survey Reports; 
• 7NDP Mid-Term Review Report;
• Sector Strategic Plans and Reports;
• Various Global and Regional development frameworks; 
• The SDGs Voluntary National Review Reports; and
• African Union Agenda 2063 Implementation Reports. 

6. Data Collection 

Where necessary primary data will be collected from each district using the tools developed. The following sector data will be captured:

• Forestry
• Agriculture
• Livestock and fisheries
• Wildlife
• Economic and social services (health, education, water, electricity, social welfare)
• Economic activities
• Land use
• Physical infrastructure
• Natural resources

7. Meetings with Stakeholders

The stakeholder consultations will involve interviews with identified key informants, including relevant State and Non-state actors that are directly involved in planning and implementation as well as monitoring and evaluation of the interventions contained in the assessment framework. 

8. Data Cleaning

This will involve identifying and correcting errors in the data set, such as dealing with missing or inconsistent data, removing duplicates and handling outliers. 

9.  Potential Risks and Challenges 

To perform the assessment, the Consultant might face risks and challenges related to the unavailability of information, lack of collaboration from key stakeholders, and methodological challenges, among others. The Consultant must identify potential risks and challenges well in advance and discuss possible strategies to overcome these situations.

10.  Stakeholders Workshop and Report Presentation 

The Consultant will facilitate a key stakeholder workshop organized by MoFNP to review the preliminary findings and recommendations.  The outcome of these deliberations will feed into the final report to be prepared by the Consultant. 

11. Project Management

The Consultant recruited by the Government through the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), will report directly to the Permanent Secretary of Planning and Administration at the Ministry of Finance and National Planning and the UNFPA Country Representative. The Permanent Secretary will be assisted by the Directorate of Population and Development. MoFNP in conjunction with UNFPA (Population & Development Specialist) will evaluate the deliverables for payment, ensure quality assurance of the expected outcomes, and facilitate the Consultant's access to necessary information and resources.

The Government, through the Department of Population and Development – MoFNP, will provide supportive supervision of the Consultant. This supervision will among others comprise the following:

1. Provision of list of stakeholders from Government and partner institutions, letters of introduction, documents for literature review by Consultant, national and sector reviews and evaluation reports, strategies, and relevant policy documents.
2. Periodic debriefs of the Permanent Secretary - Planning and Administration by the Department of Population and Development on progress and issues to be resolved. A schedule will be agreed upon with the Consultant once on board; before these meetings, the Consultant will prepare weekly reports on activities conducted and state outstanding tasks. The debrief report must also highlight challenges encountered.
3. Review of requests for payment submitted by the Consultant and advise the Permanent Secretary Planning and Administration if the deliverable is of satisfactory quality as per the agreed schedule and form to warrant processing of payment. 

12. Quality Assurance

• A Carrying Capacity Technical Committee of relevant Stakeholders will be constituted to play the role of technical supervision of the assessment process and will be under the superintendence of the Permanent Secretary – Planning and Administration in the Ministry of Finance and National Planning.
• During the assessment exercise, the Carrying Capacity Technical Committee shall provide quality assurance prior to validation and issuing of final acceptance of the evaluation outputs. 
• The Carrying Capacity Technical Committee will meet on a regular basis to review and assess progress made and deliberate on the assessment process and will provide technical guidance to the Consultant.

13. Assessment Report 

Guided by the technical committee, the Consultant will prepare the CCA Analytical Report that describes the findings, recommendations and lessons learnt. Below is a proposed structure of the final Report:

• Table of Contents 
• Acronyms 
• Executive Summary 
• Background and Programme Description 
• Purpose of the Assessment 
• Assessment Objectives and Scope; 
• Assessment Methodology 
• Findings and Analysis, 
• Conclusions, 
• Recommendations 
• Lessons learned; 
• Annexes: including the terms of reference, assessment work-plan and any other relevant documents

14. Location and Duration 

The Consultant will be working in Lusaka, with travels into provinces and districts as may be required.

15. Payment Schedule

Payment	Conditions
First payment: 10% of total contract value	Upon submission and acceptance of the inception report
Second payment: 5% of the total contract value	Upon undertaking of the Capacity Building Workshop
Third payment: 15% of the total contract value	Upon submission and acceptance of the Zero Draft Report and Profiles
Fourth payment: 10% of the total contract value	Upon submission and acceptance of the First Draft Report and Policy Briefs
Fifth Payment: 10% of total contract value	Upon submission and acceptance of the Second Draft Report and Policy Briefs
Final Payment: 50% of total contract value	Upon submission and acceptance of the final Assessment Report and Policy Briefs

16. Qualifications and Experience: 

• Master’s Degree in Demography, Economics, Statistics, Data Science, Geography, or any Social, Natural Science or related field, Doctorate Degree (PhD) in a relevant field will be an added advantage.
• Certification or skills in data science fundamentals, including data modelling and machine learning using R and other tools.
• Atleast 10 years of relevant experience in conducting research in sub-Saharan Africa. 
• Proven experience in sub national-level assessments or analyses in Zambia directly related to the assignment.
• Proven  experience in undertaking research and evaluations in the field of demography, ecological and environmental science, economics, development studies, climate change or related field.
• Demonstrated strong analytical skills and a proven ability for documentation in English.

17. General Administrative Issues

• No equipment or office supplies will be provided to the Consultant by the Government.
• The Consultant is expected to make personal transport arrangements for work within Lusaka.
• The Consultant will not be paid for weekends or public holidays and is not entitled to payment of overtime.  All remuneration must be within the contract agreement.
• The works by the Consultant shall not commence until the contract is signed by the concerned parties.
• All outputs shall be the absolute property of the Government of the Republic of Zambia.
• After the contract is initiated, the Consultant may, within reason and with the prior written approval of the Government, adjust line items within the proposed and approved budget, so long as doing so does not increase the total cost of the contract.

Required Competencies: 

Values:

Exemplifying integrity, 

Demonstrating commitment to UNFPA and the UN system, 

Embracing cultural diversity, 

Embracing change

 

Core Competencies: 

Achieving results,

Being accountable,

Developing and applying professional expertise/business acumen,

Thinking analytically and strategically,

Working in teams/managing ourselves and our relationships,

 

UNFPA Work Environment:

UNFPA provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, diversity, integrity and healthy work-life balance. We are committed to ensuring gender parity in the organization and therefore encourage women to apply. UNFPA promotes equal opportunities in terms of appointment, training, compensation and selection for all regardless of personal characteristics and dimensions of diversity. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion is at the heart of UNFPA's workforce - click here to learn more.

 

Disclaimer:

Selection and appointment may be subject to background and reference checks, medical clearance, and other administrative requirements. 

UNFPA does not charge any application, processing, training, interviewing, testing or other fee in connection with the application or recruitment process and does not concern itself with information on applicants' bank accounts.